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Jun 2713 min read

A Wake-Up Call on Chocolate

Updated: Sep 25



Join us as we delve into the pivotal changes shaping the world of chocolate and cacao. Amid rising cocoa prices and environmental challenges, we explore innovations like cocoa-free alternatives and CRISPR-enhanced cacao crops. From discussions on fair trade's growing impact to how indigenous communities safeguard livelihoods through sustainable practices, this episode examines how technology, policy, and consumer preferences intersect to redefine chocolate's future. Discover how these shifts aim not just to preserve a beloved treat but also enhance the ecosystems and communities reliant on cacao. Join us to envision a more sustainable and equitable future for chocolate.





Selected Links:






  • Win-Win: Cocoa-Free Chocolate Alternatives - 100% Ethical & Sustainable,  www.eatwinwin.com








Episode Transcript:

This transcript was computer-generated and human-edited and might contain errors. 


Sue: Welcome to Signal Shift by Horizon Shift Lab. We’re your hosts, Lana Price, Raakhee Natha, and Sue Chi. Each episode, we explore the latest signals—in technology, culture, and society—uncovering insights that will impact our daily lives in the future. Join us as we shift perspectives, explore possibilities, and delve into real changes in our world. Curious to learn more? Go to horizonshiftlab.com.


Hello, everyone. This is Sue, and I'm here with my co-hosts, the wonderful Lana Price and Raakhee Natha. A few episodes back, we talked about the future of restaurants and the issue of cacao as an endangered crop came up. Pretty much the week after, I saw an article saying the price of cocoa futures had gone up to $10,000 a ton, more than the price of copper. And so, I wanted to discuss the signals of what's going on in the world of cocoa and chocolate. Long story short, as you may already know, it's an industry ripe for change for a number of reasons. There's actually a piece by John Oliver a few months back that goes into some of the more problematic issues, which we can link to in the show notes, but it's a good overview of what's going on. So with that, I wanted to see what signals are you all picking up? What does this mean for the future of chocolate? Lana, how about you?


Lana: So I learned a lot about chocolate in doing this research, and it did also make me hungrier than usual for, and crave, chocolate. And so, I guess some of the things that I learned is that chocolate is actually one of the most consumed foods on the planet, has a total market size of 180 billion dollars, projected to be 180 billion dollars, by next year. 

And so, I think right now, we can witness in real time, like the shrinking of chocolate bars. In the United States, about 40% of things that are sold as chocolate actually have additional ingredients like caramel, nuts, or fruit. So we might even start to see the proportion of that, the chocolate part of it, start to shrink and more fillers start to grow. 


And I guess the other thing that I thought was interesting, which was Hershey's unveiled in their latest plan that -- they're very well known for their Hershey Kisses and also Reese's is a big part of their brand -- but they said that in this next year, they're going to increase production and promotion of gummies. And so, we're seeing iconic chocolate brands trying to diversify their portfolio. 


But the signal that I found is the company that I think it's based in the UK, and it's called Win Win, like W-I-N W-I-N, and they're the first company to bring cocoa-free chocolate to the market. And so their primary ingredients are fermented barley and carob. And carob is, I think, very well known and a pre-existing chocolate substitute. But I think carob doesn't have quite the popularity of chocolate. And so, apparently, they have cracked the code on making imitation… this cocoa-free chocolate. And right now, they are just distributing wholesale. So, only to other companies that want to use chocolate in their recipes. So I thought that was very promising. But again, I feel like we need a taste test to really see if they're able to do something that apparently very few, if any, producers have really been able to do successfully.


Raakhee: I have to wonder as well, with the big chocolate companies, that there are now newer brands who are adhering to fair trade principles and with societal value systems changing, people are buying more of those chocolates. So, for example, Tony's Chocolates, which has become really popular in the US in the last five years. They're a Netherlands brand. So, yeah, they're really good from a fair trade perspective, but also sustainability practices, etc. More and more people are buying it. So they've got a really nice chunk of the market share in the US, which no one would have predicted, and I'm pretty sure that the big chocolate makers didn't predict that such a small chocolate brand is going to come in and do so well, but I think it speaks to changing value systems and people asking, "What am I eating? What's on my plate? Where does this come from?"


Sue: Yeah, absolutely. And I have a signal related to that as well. But Raakhee, wanted to see if you wanted to share your signal.


[5:39]


Raakhee: I think coming into this, we all knew -- ok, cacao, we’re in trouble with that, and there's going to be a shortage in supply. So, for my own sanity, I've leaned towards: what are we going to do? And I think this is hopeful in terms of what we can still do to retain and have cacao in our lives, as a big cocoa lover. 


And basically, yeah, what I found to be really hopeful is the use of CRISPR technology, or the innovation, that's going to improve cacao crops and yields. And CRISPR, I mean, we’ve heard this so often, and it was really good for me to understand about it more, as well. So CRISPR Cas9 is a a gene editing technique. I think we all get that, but basically, it comes from the combination of a natural mechanism that exists in unicellular organisms, and they use that to defend themselves against viruses. And Cas9 is a protein, and through the scientific genius of combining these things, we ultimately get something that enables us to modify an organism's genome. So, it's basically a really complex molecule, but you can deliver it to targeted regions of DNA, and it's an enzyme cutting thing that you can alter then the DNA. 


Two really hopeful projects that I'm seeing is one, something that Penn State researchers are working on. They published this in Frontiers, but it's basically their cacao research program, and they've been doing this for many years. But really now, they are at a point where they have actual proof of concept around what's possible with CRISPR, and they have already previously identified a gene that suppresses the plant's disease response. So, using CRISPR, they can knock off this gene, which means that cacao plants would be way more disease-resistant, which is amazing because the yields will be better. A big part of the issue with supply also is how much gets destroyed and how much is just not usable. So, it's really making the cacao plant a lot more disease-resistant, and strong crops and yields will come out better. So that's really exciting. And it looks like we do have stuff that's going to work in the next couple of years. So that’s one.


But also, I found something in the exact same vein, really interesting, is Cacao For Peace, which is a program conducted in Colombia. It's between USDA Foreign Agricultural Service and Colombia, and they are working together. The whole purpose of this program is to strengthen the cacao sector in Colombia, and they are also using gene editing, but they're using it, one of the things they are using it to do, is to reduce the amount of cadmium, which is a heavy metal and causes a lot of health problems at certain levels, and they're using gene editing to kind of test and play with removing cadmium from the soil. So in essence, the plant is so smart and good in how it's developed that it doesn't absorb as much cadmium from the soil. So yeah, I'm really excited about how gene editing technology and innovation are being used to improve cacao crops and yields, and it's happening for rice, corn, and other really important crops as well. But very hopeful around what we can still retain for cacao in the future.


Sue: Does that sound really hopeful, Raakhee. And I am similar to you, I just love it so much. I hope, I have to imagine there's got to be a way to keep it around that it won’t be all or nothing at this point. There’s going to be some kind of combination of cacao and alternatives going forward, but I love the idea of the latest technological advances working with communities. 


For example, in Central Latin America, a lot of cacao is produced by indigenous communities as well, and so if this is a way to improve their livelihoods and also protect and strengthen how cacao is produced, that to me is a win-win. That’s very hopeful, especially from a policy perspective, that if you have policymakers doing this, this could potentially be done at scale, which is definitely hopeful when you think of the global demand for cacao.


Lana: Yeah, definitely. One of the things that I learned is that it’s not just chocolate; we use cocoa cocoa butter in a lot of cosmetics and lotions. And I even learned that it's a part of the supply chain of plant-based meats, they use both coconut oil and cocoa butter to create the texture of the protein. And so, it’s in more things than you would think. Having something more sustainable, but also a little bit scary to think that there's cadmium potentially in the soil. So that also sounds like a move in the right direction to make sure that we're not ingesting poisons.


Raakhee: Totally, Lana. What else do we not know about that’s sitting in all our foods and our produce? It feels good to know we can make these changes. It feels a little strange also, but is that natural? It’s that unnatural bit—I think that’s just an interesting question as we step into the future. Where do we draw the line? How much do we edit things and play with nature? But the more you learn about plants and produce, we have been doing it for a long time, right? In how we combine crops and yields. 


Sue, you raised a really important thing there as well. We think of cacao in terms of -- omigosh, we are not going to have chocolate -- but the amount of people that rely on it for their livelihoods, countries that are dependent on it, there is a big impact there.


[12:32]


Sue: Yeah, absolutely. And that was one thing I was having some tension about because my first thought was similar to some other foods: if we just go into lab-grown chocolate, is that possible? And it just made me think, exactly, if this is such a huge market, who are the people who are growing cacao now that will be excluded from an industry that they rely so much on? Are there any substitutes that they would then be able to grow? So, it just brought up a lot of questions for me. And so, this idea that you could integrate technology with the people already growing cacao seems to be a more generative form, hopefully, of ways we can continue to produce cacao.


One thing I learned—I'm guessing you all knew this or learned about it also—is they call cacao the Goldilocks crop, exactly because of how sensitive it is to environment, temperature, and all of these things. So, Raakhee, if there's a way that CRISPR can at least expand the zone of production to make it grow in a way that's healthier that produces more yield, I'm excited about that. 


And so, that actually segues into one of the signals that I found, which is, both of you know that I've been increasingly passionate about sustainability and especially looking for ways that sustainability intersects with how we live well. So how it affects our health, things like a good living, how it affects community, and how we can move away from more exploitative or extractive practices. So one thing I was learning about cacao was just how problematic some of the industry is, and I was really encouraged because in the last couple of months, I've found a few stories about new collectives, particularly in the Amazon, about indigenous communities where they're growing cacao naturally, and they have essentially built these collectives that are now having triple benefits, right? So, they are now employing sustainable agroforestry to prevent further forest degradation in the Amazon. Where they're trying to increase the biodiversity of the forest, that in turn is helping to increase the production and the quality of cacao that they have, which then in turn yields a higher price for the quality of cacao that increases their livelihoods. And so that to me was encouraging. Of course, the scale is nowhere near what we want it to be, but what I also loved was how it was bringing these communities together. 


There is one collective that I saw featured called the Cacao Guardians, and it's a women's collective. One of the women that was interviewed, she said, "We realized our chocolate was more than just cacao. It's our territory, our community, and our potential," and they talked about cacao as a piece of their culture, which I really liked. And so, the women talked about having this increased sense of purpose and empowerment in what they're doing that really supports their community. 


So, I know there's still not enough of these, but again, part of the signals is to see what is possible, that can other people and other places can replicate this, and what was encouraging to me is I found several stories of different collectives running all up and down the Amazon of what this looks like. And funders from across the world very interested in what they're doing and supporting and investing in their scale. So that was really encouraging to me as well.


Lana: That’s really beautiful. And I can imagine, chocolate is also a part of cultural celebrations, as well. And so, as intentional as these collectives and communities are about the role that the plant plays, and harvesting the plants in their culture, can we make that connection to how we celebrate when we use chocolate, right? Like, I can see a lot of possibilities there, really aligning with the intention of honoring where food comes from, and who makes it, and how we use it, and just putting more ceremony and meaning into the food. And so, I love that image that you painted for us, about how important it is for the communities at the starting point. 


Sue: One thing I was envisioning was leading to some type of almost like a Harvest Festival of Cacao. Is there something like that? I know there are things like cacao ceremonies, which I think are a different type of ceremony. But yeah, I wanted to see: is there something that celebrates the people producing the cacao, the whole process, and honoring where this comes from. It does seem like a very precious crop that we need to protect and figure out how to make sure it continues for the long run. Raakhee, I see you nodding very passionately.


[18:02]


Raakhee: I think they say that, the Aztecs called it the food of the gods, or something like that. I think that's one of the things they say about it. But yes, wholeheartedly agree with that, Sue. I would love to celebrate cacao and chocolate in all its forms.


Lana: I'll just say, as an aside that I'm in Barcelona right now. This morning I was at a cafe and I had a café con leche, and they sprinkled cocoa on top. And I was like, oh this is so precious. It looked like gold flecks in my coffee, and so I found myself really savoring it more, because I was thinking, ‘I don’t know if they know yet, that the price of this is really going up. They're just putting it on top of the coffee.' It did help me appreciate it much more.


Sue: It does open your eyes to all the ways cacao is integrated into our lives. And not to mention, Lana, what you said about other by-products of the whole industry and where that comes in. I mean, I don’t even know where else that will affect my life. So, it’s good to open our eyes to the observation of what things may be different in the future.


Raakhee: For me, I’ve had my own journey with food, right? And cultivating an appreciation for it. So, I think as a society, we’re going to go through that as well. And yeah, I’ll say it's very hopeful, though. And I think it fosters a different kind of appreciation for the products that are on our table and whole foods, and the cacao being in its whole form, and the power and beauty of that, even if we might not see big chocolates like we did before—they are smaller sizes, or whatever. If we only see cacao powder, I think it’s beautiful, and it's speaking back to that relationship of what we need to foster—our relationship with the earth and what we're growing and what we’re consuming.


Sue: It’s beautiful.


Lana: Yeah, I agree. As I was reflecting on it, I mean, this is part of a broader global awakening that we can not… If our food is made in a way that's not sustainable, we just won't have access to that type of food anymore, right? And so maybe we will think about, oh, back in the day we used to have cheap candy bars of all different types. And maybe if we don't have those things in the future, that's the responsibility, that's the price we pay, I guess. But we'll have something else, right? We'll have something that's actually better, and in a different form, that will last longer.


Sue: Yeah, I agree. In the future, for me, I can see myself having different alternatives for different occasions and maybe really saving real chocolate for really really special occasions. Even now, I feel that way whenever I look at a piece of high-quality chocolate, I always feel happy and a bit thankful. Like oh, I’m having this piece of chocolate—what a great moment, even in my day. How much more important will that be in the future? I'm also hopeful, I think, Raakhee, you're mentioning with some of the fair trade practices becoming really important for consumers, that trend will only increase. And so in the future, it would be great if we could say, ‘Oh I’m having this piece of chocolate produced by this group here,’ or ‘This is how I know where my food is coming from,’ just as an additional way of educating consumers about what we’re consuming in our bodies. So, I’m hopeful for that as well.


So, I’m curious, for all of you out there listening, how does chocolate play a role in your life, and how might you imagine it in the future? This is certainly a wake-up call for me, and different ways I might think about purchasing and consuming chocolate in the future. Thanks for listening, and bye for now.


[22:44]

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