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We use the Futures Wheel framework to explore a provocative scenario: What happens when toxic air becomes an 18-month reality? Our mapping of possible consequences reveals surprising cascading effects, from "clean air caravan communities" to digital twin homes that optimize for health. Drawing from current examples and real-world toxic events—we examine how this crisis could transform housing, work, and social structures. Through our collaborative exercise, we uncover complex interconnections between air, water, and food systems. The implications for equity and adaptation resonate with challenges we are already facing today.
Selected Links:
"FEMA Wildfire Risk Map." Federal Emergency Management Agency, accessed 22 Jan 2025, https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/wildfire
Elliott, James R. et al. “In Floods like Hurricane Helene’s, Toxic Chemicals Are a Silent and Growing Threat.” Scientific American. 3 Oct 2024,
Glenn, Jerome C. "The Futures Wheel." Futures Research Methodology 3.0, The Millennium Project, Feb. 2021, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349335014_THE_FUTURES_WHEEL
"Black Knight." Directed by Cho Ui-Seok, Netflix, 2023, https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/black-knight-release-date-news
Saloomey, Kristen. “‘My Children Have Been Sick’: The Toxic Aftermath of a Train Derailment.” Aljazeera. 21 Jul 2024,
Episode Transcript:
Sue: Welcome to Signal Shift, by Horizon Shift Lab. We're your hosts, Lana Price, Raakhee Natha, and Sue Chi. Each episode, we explore the latest signals in technology, culture, and society, uncovering insights that will impact our daily lives in the future. Join us as we shift perspectives, explore possibilities, and delve into real changes in our world. Curious to learn more? Go to horizonshiftlab.com.
Sue: Hello, everyone. It's Sue here, and we're back for another episode of Signal Shift. And I've got Lana here with me, but I am sorry to say that Raakhee, who is in Los Angeles dealing with the fallout from the fires like so many others, can't join us today. But Raakhee, we're thinking of you, and we're also thinking of all those who are impacted, and we hope that you are okay.
So for Lana and me, we are continuing our series this month about health and wellness. And we started with longevity, and the Bryan Johnson Don't Die movement. So if you haven't already, go back and have a listen, because it's kind of wild, just the things that are happening in that space.
But today, Lana and I wanted to go beyond just the signals that we bring every week and actually start drawing out more connections about what these kinds of futures mean to us. So we're going to use a tool today to think about specifically the impact of air quality and health.
And while of course, there are the wildfires in Los Angeles that are top of mind, you know, the truth of the matter is that at least according to the latest FEMA map, it looks like about half the country is at risk of wildfire. It's really scary actually to see the colors on this map and how much of the country is susceptible to this.
And it's not just wildfire. You know, we also have the impact of flooding. And so we saw during Hurricane Helene now in Asheville, not only did it create toxic sludge, but all the debris from the soil and from people burning the debris has created toxic air in the region as well.
So unfortunately, this is a topic that is really, it's too real of a scenario for too many people. And it's an increase in concern, which is why we really wanted to address this.
So the tool we decided to use today has many names. The first version that I could track down, it's called the Future's Wheel. And it was developed by Jerome Glenn in the 1970s. Others call it the Impact Wheel, but the idea is the same, which is: how can one action or event imagined or real cascade into all sorts of impacts in different facets of our lives? What do those look like? Maybe two, three, four steps out.
And for the purposes of this framework and tool, the more extreme it is, the better. So we just want to be clear, this is an imagined scenario. This has not happened.
So here is our imagined scenario: Imagine if FEMA issues a statement that the air quality in and around your area will have increased levels of toxicity projected to last the next 12 to 18 months, creating a serious threat to life. What would happen? And what would you do?
So Lana, I'm going to hand it over to you first.
[3:41]
Lana: Thanks, Sue. Yeah, this was a really provocative exercise. And the prompt, which is essentially a toxic air warning that will last in your area for 12 to 18 months; and it's something that people are facing now, even if they're facing that decision, it might be a week or two weeks, right? Or they might not know how long it is. And so kind of knowing that time factor up front of 12 to 18 months, I think really, it sparks a real, like a clear need to make a decision, if that makes sense.
So my initial reaction to it, you know, in terms of the approach. I mean, the first kind of big divide that I looked at with this question is: those who are able to leave versus those who can't, right? Like that seemed to me the starting point for what this scenario means.
To give a concrete example of cascading consequences taking folks who leave, imagine an uptick in RV sales and culture, as many people rationalize that this might be a new reality and they will move from place to place in their homes. That would then impact the economy that supports that subculture- like storage units, mailbox rentals, RV parks, even RV YouTubers.
The next order of consequences might be the emergence of “clean air caravan communities” - so groups of RV owners who share air quality data and move together. New technologies could come up, like RV-specific air filtration systems and real-time apps that optimize travel paths based on air quality forecasts.
And then the next layer, imagine the impact on small towns along these new “clean air routes.” Some communities might invest heavily in air quality infrastructure to become designated “safe air stops,” similar to how towns once positioned themselves along railway lines.
This could reshape local economies, property values, and even political priorities. So that’s one concrete example.
I mean, we worked on it together, but asynchronously. And so I guess, you know, curious how you approached it. And also, you know, what was, what were some of the main takeaways that you got from it?
Sue: Yeah, I really liked being able to dovetail with you. So if you, I saw you put something down and that would spark a totally different idea that I had, that I don't know that I would have had otherwise. So, you know, there's definitely a benefit in doing this with other people. And I imagine the more we have, the more diverse range of perspectives we'll have on it.
You made a really interesting comment about the clear need to make a decision, which sometimes, you know, you create false deadlines to create that sense of urgency or that line in the sand. And this might be a difference, right? Because, like you said, there is terrible air quality in lots of places right now. And it will continue, but with no end in sight or that uncertainty.
And so I would just wonder, is there a benefit for you in your own decision making, even if the authorities haven't said so, just to put a false like a deadline for yourself on imagining what this will look like in the next 12 to 18 months in the next two to three years. So I thought that was a really interesting observation you made, Lana.
[7:37]
The last thing I'll just say is that I really liked, and I don't know if you did this on purpose. I got to say, I was a little bit intentional about this, but taking the themes that kept coming up for us over signals over the last year, I wanted to understand how it was interacting with the scenario.
So for example, I was thinking of digital twins in the space, like, where does that show up?
Imagine this: it’s a digital twin of your house. And if you’re lucky to be in a position to rebuild, what if there was a technology to see your different outcomes - not just from an energy efficiency perspective, but from your overall health outcomes for you and your family? Wht about overall risks for other types of environmental factors? So you could simulate the impact of different things in your home, and choose your location or build specs based on it.
We're actually already seeing this with Harvard's Healthy Buildings program - so they've developed simulations showing how simple changes in ventilation can reduce cognitive decline by 50%.
And I feel like this is something Raakhee would say - but you know, of course with this, the next step would be to integrate health data - imagine your smart watch data feeding into your home's digital system or digital twin, and show how different room configurations or ventilation systems impact your sleep quality, respiratory health, even your children's asthma symptoms, for example.
Overall, all of this question leading to who leaves and who stays. And even if that's temporary, I thought it was really interesting-- the tourism opportunities and the relocation opportunities that will come up. And again, like you said, it's not that far off. Like, if we have a booming medical tourism industry right now, what's not to say that clean air and clean water are going to be part of that.
It did remind me when I was growing up, there was someone who had severe asthma. And I remember that her family used to travel at least three months out of the year to Arizona where the air was drier. It was cleaner, especially back then, for her asthma. So this is not too far off. So I thought that was really interesting.
And then, I think, again, big picture, there were so many things, of course, related to housing and to buildings and like the built environment. And at the moment, we're adding on all these kind of emergency treatments. But when people have a minute to think about the future, how does the design aspect impact all of this?
Like, I'm really curious to see what the housing design will look like when you need different HVAC systems, different water treatment, natural disaster resistance, or resilience. What kind of spaces will that create? How movable will they be or resistant? So, and, you know, can you have beautiful design as part of it too?
So I just thought that was really interesting. Now, what about you, Lana? What did you take away?
Lana: The outside/inside design that you're talking about is like, what would it take for us to safely go outside? What does it take for us to safely be inside? Like you're mentioning the in-buildings, like changes to building codes, right, the immediate need to bolster the infrastructure of hospitals, schools, offices, you know, homes, prisons, all these public spaces, the air quality would need to improve immediately and dramatically.
[11:23]
The other sort of takeaway that I had is that our most vulnerable populations continue to be the most impacted. And so, like you mentioned, if you have asthma and you already have difficulty breathing, you know, this will only compound. Those who don't have homes, right, who already live and sleep outside, not because they choose to, you know, what will they do when they can't breathe the air? What does it take to solve a crisis that's already a crisis that's now been compounded?
I think a thing that has surprised me was, for example, the relationship between air and water. So the cascading effect of toxic air and how that very quickly turns into toxic water was like, oh, no, you know, this sort of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, like our real, the most basic, basic things we need to survive in terms of air and then water and then how that impacts our food, right, and thinking about what plants need. They need soil and they need water and what that would do to our local sort of like agricultural system. So that cascading effect, sort of seeing that play out in our exercise was made it like 3D in terms of what that could mean and so that was one sort of surprise. And then to kind of see it play out.
Sue: You know, Lana, that’s a great point. And we’re seeing this, now from Ohio, if you remember there was that train derailment with toxic substances from 2 years ago. And they’re still seeing the consequences of this - with health issues for the families there - people are reporting increased incidences of asthma, seizures, hair falling out and more. And it’s really concerning. They even said they’re seeing high levels of toxins in the food that they are growing in that region. So it’s very concerning.
But moving on, something surprising I found was that I thought the social cultural part was really interesting.
What I didn't really appreciate was like how this is going to change our culture of, you know, for example, kids in outdoor spaces. What does that look like? What is the culture again of like working from home versus an office space? Is this going to change the HR benefits because more people are going to ask about the air quality and the water quality of a place where they work? Or is that considered a benefit? Like offices will help install like a clean air system in your home if you're working from home, right? So there's all these new things you have to consider of like just, yeah, what are new things that people will be expecting in the future.
And then of course, I thought the pop culture references started coming up as we were thinking about this. There's a movie I watched not too long ago on Netflix, a Korean movie called Black Knight, and it's, you know, this dystopian post apocalyptic world where the world is so toxic in terms of air pollution. There is now like a bartering and trading system on oxygen tanks for homes. And that's kind of the premise of the movie of like what happens. And so it's like, oh, yeah, of course, not too in the distant future. Like maybe we all have backup oxygen tanks because that's what we're going to need. So yeah, it started getting into the realm of a little bit more sci-fi later, just again, appreciating people's imagination like, oh, this could be the world we live in, hopefully not. But unless we do something, these are some backups that we, we have to, you know, think about.
The other thing, maybe it's not so surprising was just like the opportunism that exists out of crisis, for better or for worse. Like there are people, I mean, we're seeing this right now with the price surging in the rental market in Los Angeles. But at the same time, there are opportunities to redesign and offer better things that will make people's lives better.
[15:48]
Lana: Yeah, I agree. I think that in our Impact Wheel, I guess I’ll use that name. To me, the exercise felt very much like reminiscent of some of the things we saw in COVID, right? There are opportunities for innovation in there and new economies that will come here like an air quality economy, new standards of what it means to have clean air, better, faster ways to purify air, like those things will come because they have to.
And one of the other innovations that we put, and actually Raakhee had suggested this in a different context. But she had suggested, you know, for the wildfires, you know, the eventuality of having like robot firefighters, right? And so, you know, this idea that when the air is so toxic, you can't breathe, maybe that is a good opportunity to put robots in jobs that are unsafe for humans, you know, maybe that would be a good use of it, kind of credit her for that idea.
And I think we are, by our nature, creative and adaptive, you know, we do rise to the occasion when needed. And I have no doubt that we would, you know, in this scenario, too.
Sue: All right, Lana. Well, thanks so much for this exercise today. I think it was a really good one. There are a lot of takeaways and there's so much more, y'all, on this mapping that we did that we haven't even talked about. And so, I think I hope in the future we're going to see an opportunity for those of you who want to participate in something like this to do it together. And you know, the more the merrier, the more diverse perspectives we'll have, we'll have just surprising consequences that we'll see. And it may, you know, make you kind of change what you think about in the future.
So I'm curious what this is making you think of today. And thank you for listening. If you have any other suggestions or you want to leave us a message, go to horizonshiftlab.com, sign up. And yeah, we would love to hear from you. So thanks so much. We'll be back again with another episode on health. And we'll see you then. Bye for now.
[18:26]
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